How the Weak Win Wars by Ivan Arreguín-Toft

If power implies victory in war, then weak actors should almost never win against stronger opponents, especially when the gap in relative power is very large.

Yet history suggests otherwise: Weak actors sometimes do win.The question is how.


Hypothesis 1: When strong actors attack using a direct strategy and weak actors defend using a direct strategy, all other things being equal, strong actors should win quickly and decisively


Hypothesis 2: When strong actors attack with a direct strategy and weak actors defend using an indirect strategy, all other things being equal, weak actors should win


Hypothesis 3: When strong actors attack using an indirect strategy and weak actors defend using a direct strategy, all other things being equal, strong actors should lose


Hypothesis 4: When strong actors employ barbarism to attack weak actors defending with a Guerrilla Warfare Strategy, all other things being equal, strong actors should win

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